In the wake of October 7th: Hezbollah's escalation against Israel and its regional implications

The day after Hamas' attack on southern Israel on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,200 civilians and over 340 military personnel, the kidnapping of 251 hostages—half of whom are Israeli and the other half hold foreign passports or dual citizenship—and the beginning of a war that, nearly a year later, shows no signs of ending, Hezbollah, based in southern Lebanon near the Israeli border, decided to attack Israel to show its support for Gaza (or, more accurately, to satisfy various political and territorial interests).

Since October 8, Hezbollah has been firing an average of around 30 rockets per day, burning down 250,000 acres of forest, destroying Israeli towns, killing 43 civilians, and forcing 62,000 people (including Arabs living in Israel) to evacuate their homes and relocate to other cities within the country. This situation has led Israel to shift the border where people can still live kilometers south of the actual border between Israel and Lebanon, creating a new de facto boundary. The land north of this line is now almost deserted. Only a limited number of people and essential workers are allowed to enter the evacuated areas, such as Kiryat Shmona, to sustain the country's economy.

Fires ignite in northern Israel near Kiryat Shmona, close to the Lebanon border, on June 3, 2024, due to rockets fired from Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon. (Jalaa MAREY / AFP) (Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

Who is Hezbollah?

On the Lebanese side of the border is Hezbollah, founded in the 1980s following the Islamic Revolution in Iran by militants from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The group's goal was to wage war against Israel and counter Western influence in Lebanon. Today, Hezbollah is the largest Iranian proxy in the region.

Hezbollah's Political Involvement

In 1992, about a decade after its creation, this militant organization officially entered Lebanon's political arena, transforming into a political party that participated in parliamentary elections. By 2005, Hezbollah and its allies had secured a significant number of seats in the Lebanese Parliament, steadily increasing their influence. Hezbollah's involvement in politics allows it to exert considerable control over Lebanon's domestic and foreign policies, especially regarding Israel and relations with Western countries.

The Dispute with Israel and the Lebanon Wars

The elimination of the state of Israel has always been part of Hezbollah's political agenda. Understanding Hezbollah's military confrontations with Israel is crucial to understanding its role in the region. The First Lebanon War occurred in 1982 when Israel invaded Lebanon to expel the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Hezbollah emerged amidst the chaos of this war, opposing the Israeli occupation. The Second Lebanon War in 2006 was a more direct confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel. This conflict began after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers, prompting a massive Israeli military response. The war lasted 34 days and caused significant destruction in both Lebanon and northern Israel. To this day, border incidents continue to occur regularly.

Post-War Agreements and the Litani River

After the Second Lebanon War, a United Nations-brokered ceasefire led to the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, which called for a full cessation of hostilities, the disarmament of Hezbollah, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. Despite these stipulations, Hezbollah has maintained its military capabilities and continues to exert influence south of the Litani River, which currently serves as the border of defense. The resolution stipulates that no Hezbollah forces are allowed south of this river. The Litani River holds symbolic and strategic importance, as control over the area is crucial for both Lebanon and Israel due to its water resources and proximity to the Israeli border.

Hezbollah's Influence in Lebanon

Hezbollah's influence is most prominent in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and parts of Beirut. In southern Lebanon, especially in areas bordering Israel, Hezbollah's presence is deeply rooted, with the group effectively controlling local governance and maintaining a strong military presence. The Bekaa Valley serves as a strategic base for Hezbollah's operations, including military training and logistics. In Beirut, particularly in the southern suburbs known as Dahiya, Hezbollah has established a stronghold, providing social services, security, and infrastructure to the local population, further solidifying its power and influence within Lebanon.

Fighting against Hezbollah: why a Third Lebanon War wouldn’t be like the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza

A Third Lebanon War would present a completely different scenario compared to the current conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Lebanon is a sovereign country with its own government, which has been urging Hezbollah to avoid escalating tensions, as it strongly opposes Hezbollah’s ideology and actions. Lebanon is already grappling with severe economic crises, political instability, and deep social divisions—the last thing the country needs is a war with a powerful state like Israel and its allies. Additionally, Lebanon is striving to maintain crucial international relationships, especially with Western countries, and avoid the civilian casualties that would inevitably follow. The Lebanese government's opposition to Hezbollah stems from a desire to preserve the country's remaining stability and prevent a humanitarian disaster.

From Israel's perspective, a full-scale war with Hezbollah would be far more devastating than the conflict with Hamas: Hezbollah possesses more advanced weaponry capable of reaching almost any location in Israel, including specific targets.

Furthermore, like Hamas, Hezbollah often stores its weapons and ammunition in civilian areas. Consequently, a war would likely result in a significant number of Lebanese civilian casualties. As previously mentioned, Lebanon is a well-established country with millions of civilians living across its cities and towns. This means any conflict would likely impact civilian life on a much larger scale, resulting in a higher human cost and a more devastating aftermath.